May 5th predictions

We now have less than a week to go before the first major elections after the 2010 General Election. You can feel the tension in the air as politicians of all parties up and down the length and breadth of the country are anticipating the results.

YouGov published a poll on April 24^th for the Sun that showed the Liberals had slipped to a 20 year low of just 7%. Labour were on 43%, and the Tories 39%. Predictions based on national polls are pretty inaccurate because local factors in a local election can, and often do, make a difference.

One thing is clear from the doorstep, the Liberals are in uncharted waters. They have never campaigned as the Government before, and their usual position as the protest party has gone. In this election they have become the party a lot of people are protesting about. The Liberal vote in this scenario is vulnerable and the response from voters is clear they are leaving the sinking ship.

Nick Clegg is one of the most unpopular leaders of any party in recent history, and his personal journey from the anointed success of the General Election to almost pariah status today is unprecedented. The Liberals cannot escape what they have done in Government, and for the first time they will be held accountable at the ballot box and it doesn’t look good for them.

The Tories are playing things carefully, they know they will lose seats to Labour, and that the national picture will look very different on May 6^th, but they may feel emboldened by their relative survival in the face of a Liberal collapse. Watch out for expectation management of all the parties. Labour will talk of slow progress, the Liberals of losing to a national mood, and the Tories will talk of the high watermark they achieved last time, and this is purely a natural readjustment of that. Truth is the Liberals and Tories will lose badly and Labour will gain.

The bigger question that begs to be answered is at what point do the Tories pull the plug on the coalition and go for a General Election in the hope of an overall majority?

Labour meanwhile will begin its rehabilitation in the eyes of voters, gaining seats on a scale it hasn’t seen for over 15 years. Major cities, including key councils like Trafford, Reading, Newcastle and Sheffield will all swing back to Labour. Even in the leafy shires Labour will begin to regain previously lost ground. This is will improve Labour’s activist base and demoralise the opposition. It is fair to argue that at the moment Labour is the only opposition party to the Tories, and in many cases the real choice instead of the Liberals.

May 5^th will be a watershed for many reasons, not least for those poor foot-soldiers of each party who will win and lose. We forget sometimes how much personal effort and commitment councillors give in getting elected or trying to stay elected. May 5^th will shape the political narrative, we’ll just have wait and see what the voters actually serve up.

Dr Paul Harvey, Labour Consultant, Curtin&Co