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Wednesday 27 April 2011

Time for a Quickie Divorce ?

Last month I wrote how the AV referendum had the potential of sowing the seeds of destruction for the coalition government.

The latest turf war suggests the break up might be more imminent.

It is almost unprecedented that cabinet ministers criticise each other in public and the tone of the recent carping by Huhne and Cable suggest a deliberate fracturing could be about to take place.

It is increasingly difficult to see how the growing divisions can be smoothed over that is if the protagonists even want them to be.

So what is going on?

Huhne’s behaviour could be interpreted as a softening up exercise ahead of a leadership challenge to Clegg.

Remember this man would have won the Lib Dem leadership had it not been for delays caused by the Christmas post.

Not a member of the Orange Book clique that is more comfortable in the coalition, he is more in tune with the majority of the Lib Dem party membership and could well harness the significant unease that is likely to erupt after the inevitable bloody nose the party will receive on May 5th.
Meanwhile, stage left, Cable is almost daring Cameron to sack him. His manoeuvring is more difficult to interpret, if it is a thought out ploy but could be seen as a possible precursor to a splintering of the party or a jump to the Labour party.

If the referendum is lost, informed insiders believe Cable’s behaviour might be an attempt to negotiate another referendum with the Labour Party. Quite how realistic this is has to be questioned.

Behind these scenes of internecine manoeuvring, the mutterings are growing in the Conservative ranks. Talk of more compromises to prop up an embattled Clegg is met with an increasing belligerence. Cameron is busy using up his political capital and there will come a time when the predominantly right wing parliamentary party is going to put its foot down. Whilst there is no talk of a leadership challenge, Cameron will find his room for manoeuvre increasingly restricted.

Hang onto your seats for an interesting six months.

Frank Browne, Conservative Consultant, Curtin&Co