Everyone; the pundits, voters and politicians have been looking for the General Election game changer. For months the forgone conclusion of a Conservative victory has ebbed away. Cameron hasn’t sealed the deal with the British people, he has failed to connect and at the same time Labour mired in its own internal machinations has failed to land a knock out blow. Meanwhile creeping up the outside the Liberal Democrats have been handed a gift.
Whether you believe it a master stroke of Peter Mandelson’s tactical genius or of sheer political nerve, the agreement of Labour and more importantly the Tories to the inclusion of Nick Clegg in the Leadership debates could be the game changer of this election.
Consider the reality of the opinion polls. Since the first debate the Liberal Democrat surge has hit the Tories hard. Labour has also lost a few percentage points, but the overwhelming truth of the Liberal Democrat surge, if sustained, is that it kills off the Tories chances of a majority.
Can the Conservatives fight a war on two fronts? Can they hit the Labour Party in the midlands marginal’s and take the fight to the Liberal Democrats in the South and South West? Probably not, because even the Tories with all Ashcroft’s millions cannot cover that much ground.
The Tories in the last week have turned their fire on the Liberal Democrats, they are going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at Nick Clegg.
The Tories need plus 40% to secure a working majority, Labour need 33% to deprive the Tories of a majority if the Tories continue to poll less than 39%. Anything less than 39% for the Tories will realistically mean a hung parliament. So if you believe the current polling averages of Labour on 27%, Liberal Democrats on 29% and the Tories on 33% then it could mean Labour are the largest party in a hung parliament.
In terms of the local government picture this three way battle; if the Liberal Democrat poll strength is translated into votes in the ballot box this will alter the political landscape of the UK. The big question is whether the Liberal Democrats can indeed convert the support they appear to have in the polls in to real votes in ballot boxes.
When you look at a map of council control in the UK you can see the red urban heartlands and blue rural split. But, the picture over the last few local elections has become far more complicated. Labour has been hit hard by Liberal Democrat gains in the North. Labour no longer control Leeds, Bradford, Newscastle, Sheffield, Hull, Milton Keynes, or Liverpool. Major northern cities now controlled by the Liberal Democrats. If we then consider the strength of the Liberal Democrats, despite losing Cornwall and Devon County Council’s last year, in the South West the local government picture is very complicated.
This year there are three major battlegrounds – all London Borough’s are up for election. 36 Metropolitan Boroughs and 20 Unitary Councils are up for election by thirds.
Of the London Boroughs the big question is how high the Tory tide will wash ashore. It is likely that the Tories will enhance their grip on control of Redbridge, Merton, Harrow and Enfield. Labour lost badly in the last elections and their bastions of Greenwich, Barking & Dagenham, Hackney, Newham and Lambeth are relatively impregnable. Ones to watch would be Hounslow where the Tories could strengthen joint control with the Liberal Democrats, or Haringey where Labour has a 5 seat majority and the Liberal Democrats could take control. The Liberal Democrats on the other hand are defending a two seat majority in Kingston upon Thames and the Tories will be expecting to take control. In Islington things couldn’t be more balanced as the Liberal Democrats have 24 seats, Labour 23 and the Greens 1 seat.
In the big Metropolitan Borough’s watch out for shocks in Bolton, Kirklees, Calderdale and Wolverhampton where the Tories will be expecting to take full control. Labour is stronger in Metropolitan Councils as it defends it’s heartlands in Rotherham, Barnsley, Manchester, Wigan, and Sunderland. The Liberal Democrats are strong in Stockport, Sheffield and Liverpool. Of significance for the General Election is the problem for the Tories that Sheffield, Newcastle, Gateshead, Knowsley, and Liverpool are all Tory free councils. Manchester has just one Tory on the Council.
The Unitary Council’s are really fascinating to watch. Blackburn is a four way split, look for the Tories to make gains here. Bristol could swing heavily to the Liberal Democrats. Reading will likely be lost by Labour, and so too could Stoke, Stockton, Redcar and Cleveland, North Lincolnshire, Luton, and Leicester all be lost. It is almost certain that Labour will lose seats and control of yet more councils.
The fundamental issue will be whether Labour’s vote holds up and actually comes out to vote. There is little sign of it truly shifting to the Tories, but a great number are undecided and are thinking twice about the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will be highly motivated to go out and vote, but can the Tories stack up votes outside of their heartlands is a big question. The Liberal Democrats are the spoilers. If their poll results are translated into votes then the political landscape will be very different come May 7th. The focus for the Liberal Democrats will be to hurt the Tories in the South West and in Wessex, whereas they will hurt Labour in the northern cities. If the Liberal Democrat surge collapses then it might be better for Labour in Local Government terms, but it will likely result in a Tory Government?
This is definitely one of the most interesting elections in a generation.
