Budget Reaction

Housebuilders in particular can take encouragement from today's budget, with the press conference emphasis on a new 'drive for homes' finally giving rise to legislative change - relaxing rules around the conversion of commercial to residential property is an important step, and will free up an estimated 266,000 commercial units for housing.

Vince Cable's much vaunted 'land auctions' also make the cut in the budget, with the first set of pilot auctions of undeveloped land from local owners scheduled for the summer. How successful these pilot projects is yet to be seen, but the willingness of both developers and cash-strapped councils to take a punt on undeveloped sites will be a concern.

Other headlines of the budget carry the usual emphasis on the relationship between property ownership and scoial mobility. In a bid to get first-time buyers onto the ladder, those with 5% deposits will now be eligible for a 20% government loan on top of income-assessed mortgage entitlements.

How all of this will sit alongside the Loclaism agenda, particularly in relation to pre-permissioned plots being sold to developers by local authorities at auction, is highly questionable. The Bill's resilience during its passage through parlaiment over the next 12 months will be key.

Pickles was congratualted on the strength, scope and ambition of the Bill when it finally came; all of that will count for nothing if it continues to unravel over the next nine months.

Ally Kennedy
Liberal Democrat Consultant

The local government elections, be careful what you wish for…

Nominations have opened for the forthcoming local government elections on May 5th. In addition to the 279 councils and 8000 plus seats up, we have elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the ill considered referendum on AV.

The Conservatives will be defending some 5000 seats, the Lib Dems just over 1800 and Labour 1600. Privately the Conservatives are bracing themselves for losses of up to 1000 seats, the Lib Dems are probably vulnerable in over 500 seats with Labour set to be the main beneficiary from both.

Despite the slightly ridiculous issue being subjected to referendum, the result either way, combined with the likely local government elections are likely to have far reaching effects than should normally be expected.

If the referendum succeeds, quite possible given the current shambles of the NO campaign, coalition governments could become the norm rather than the exception.

If it falls, the result combined with the likely loss of seats and councils for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats at local government level will place a huge strain on the coalition government.

Whilst it is doubtful if it would cause the imminent collapse of the government, it will probably sow the seeds of an eventual split.

So where will the pressure come from?

The Liberal Democrats are most likely to crack first. The nature of the party makes it more vulnerable to the pressures council losses will exert, and I suspect we may see the left breaking off to form a more left leaning Liberal Democrat grouping or, completely jumping ship to join Labour who is assiduously courting them already, with the Orange bookers (the more solid right wing) remaining in the coalition. They certainly have form and you only need to look at the coalitions of 1918 and the 1930s so see what might happen. The big question is what happens to the government’s majority? Will enough Lib Dem MPs stay to ensure a workable majority or could the government fall?

Authored by Frank Browne, Conservative consultant for Curtin&Co and former council leader on Wokingham Borough Council.

Pre-budget planning pressure builds on Osborne

Eric Pickles' promises to cut the planning system 'down to size' this week make for interesting pre-budget reading. Whether the rhetoric here will be backed up by decisive action following the ongoing debate on Localism's capacity to impede or assit growth, is another matter.



The lowest house-building rates since 1923 are beginning to force the treasury's hand on this one.



Tomorrow's budget will lay out how the government intends to reverse the current 'inertia' gripping developmnent in the UK (as the DCLG Select Committee put it so aptly this week).

New Homes Bonus- A Conservative View

Critics of the Localism agenda have been saying for some time now that the new system is unworkable; after all, who’s going to vote for new developments in their back yard? Certainly not councils who fear a political back-lash in any up-coming election, that’s for sure!

But will they now with added financial incentives? The common theme of local rags up and down the country has centred on “cuts” after being spoon-fed by the Labour Party Press Office carpet-baggers. How will we possibly cope without all those diversity and climate change officers?

Anyway, the financial incentives of the New Homes Bonus will provide local councils with an ideal way to avoid some of the most devastating cuts. A few million quid in the council coffers should help save a few local libraries so their 3 or 4 customers can continue to enjoy their Mills and Boon and books on ornithology. Great!

George Saliagopoulos Curtin&Co Consultant