A Consevative election review

So what’s the verdict on the first set of nationwide elections since the General election?

Most Conservatives would admit to being in a bit of a daze, we were anticipating a battering and the loss of up to one thousand seats we were defending. Quite incredibly we actually increased our councillor base, admittedly just by 81 at the time of writing but this was the last thing we anticipated.

The Liberal Democrats, as expected, fared badly but even worse than was imagined. Of the 1800 seats they were defending, they lost over 700; almost 40%. Whilst the Lib Dem High Command swung quickly into defensive mode about Nick Clegg’s position, there will be a large section of the voluntary party that will be very uneasy about the combined loss of so many councillors, key flagship councils and the AV vote.

So what about Labour? On paper they look to be the main beneficiaries but this is deceptive. Whilst they did well in some areas, they failed to make significant breakthroughs in much of the country, which explains why the Conservatives did so much better than expected. Ed Miliband had a golden opportunity to cement his slightly precarious leadership with a solid set of results and he failed to deliver. As a result he will continue to suffer from mutterings about his leadership.

So what are the implications of these results?

The high tide of conservative fortunes in the local government world, which I had predicted as having started to turn last year, is still in and looks to stay for a little longer. Cameron will feel obliged to try and help protect Clegg’s flank with a raft of legislative sweetners and other bolsters. The Conservative Parliamentary party which tolerates rather than enthuses over the coalition will get increasingly belligerent over what they see as being too many compromises. Whilst there is widespread relief over the AV result in much of the Conservative Party, this will only deliver a certain amount of political credit for Cameron at a time when it was running dangerously low.

The Lib Dems could go through one of their frenzied internecine periods with a leadership election. Huhne who was widely seen as lining himself for such a tilt may be damaged beneath the waterline by imminent reveleations from his former wife. That leaves Cable and Fallon as the only obvious alternatives. Both are left to the current leadership but more in tune with the party grassroots, but the key question is if there is a change of leadership what else is going to change. The Lib Dems have very limited room for manoeuvre as coalition partners, they are already getting significant manifesto commitments delivered. The only significant change left is a looser coalition arrangement or a complete splitting altogether. Both could be suicide for the parliamentary party but it does have form on this.

And finally, what of the Labour party? It will be pleased with the direction of travel its 800 plus seats gives but disappointed not to have done better. Scotland will be a major disappointment and, as I said earlier, speculation over its leader will continue.

Frank Browne, Conservative Consultant, Curtin&Co

May 5th predictions

We now have less than a week to go before the first major elections after the 2010 General Election. You can feel the tension in the air as politicians of all parties up and down the length and breadth of the country are anticipating the results.

YouGov published a poll on April 24^th for the Sun that showed the Liberals had slipped to a 20 year low of just 7%. Labour were on 43%, and the Tories 39%. Predictions based on national polls are pretty inaccurate because local factors in a local election can, and often do, make a difference.

One thing is clear from the doorstep, the Liberals are in uncharted waters. They have never campaigned as the Government before, and their usual position as the protest party has gone. In this election they have become the party a lot of people are protesting about. The Liberal vote in this scenario is vulnerable and the response from voters is clear they are leaving the sinking ship.

Nick Clegg is one of the most unpopular leaders of any party in recent history, and his personal journey from the anointed success of the General Election to almost pariah status today is unprecedented. The Liberals cannot escape what they have done in Government, and for the first time they will be held accountable at the ballot box and it doesn’t look good for them.

The Tories are playing things carefully, they know they will lose seats to Labour, and that the national picture will look very different on May 6^th, but they may feel emboldened by their relative survival in the face of a Liberal collapse. Watch out for expectation management of all the parties. Labour will talk of slow progress, the Liberals of losing to a national mood, and the Tories will talk of the high watermark they achieved last time, and this is purely a natural readjustment of that. Truth is the Liberals and Tories will lose badly and Labour will gain.

The bigger question that begs to be answered is at what point do the Tories pull the plug on the coalition and go for a General Election in the hope of an overall majority?

Labour meanwhile will begin its rehabilitation in the eyes of voters, gaining seats on a scale it hasn’t seen for over 15 years. Major cities, including key councils like Trafford, Reading, Newcastle and Sheffield will all swing back to Labour. Even in the leafy shires Labour will begin to regain previously lost ground. This is will improve Labour’s activist base and demoralise the opposition. It is fair to argue that at the moment Labour is the only opposition party to the Tories, and in many cases the real choice instead of the Liberals.

May 5^th will be a watershed for many reasons, not least for those poor foot-soldiers of each party who will win and lose. We forget sometimes how much personal effort and commitment councillors give in getting elected or trying to stay elected. May 5^th will shape the political narrative, we’ll just have wait and see what the voters actually serve up.

Dr Paul Harvey, Labour Consultant, Curtin&Co