Nominations have opened for the forthcoming local government elections on May 5th. In addition to the 279 councils and 8000 plus seats up, we have elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the ill considered referendum on AV.
The Conservatives will be defending some 5000 seats, the Lib Dems just over 1800 and Labour 1600. Privately the Conservatives are bracing themselves for losses of up to 1000 seats, the Lib Dems are probably vulnerable in over 500 seats with Labour set to be the main beneficiary from both.
Despite the slightly ridiculous issue being subjected to referendum, the result either way, combined with the likely local government elections are likely to have far reaching effects than should normally be expected.
If the referendum succeeds, quite possible given the current shambles of the NO campaign, coalition governments could become the norm rather than the exception.
If it falls, the result combined with the likely loss of seats and councils for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats at local government level will place a huge strain on the coalition government.
Whilst it is doubtful if it would cause the imminent collapse of the government, it will probably sow the seeds of an eventual split.
So where will the pressure come from?
The Liberal Democrats are most likely to crack first. The nature of the party makes it more vulnerable to the pressures council losses will exert, and I suspect we may see the left breaking off to form a more left leaning Liberal Democrat grouping or, completely jumping ship to join Labour who is assiduously courting them already, with the Orange bookers (the more solid right wing) remaining in the coalition. They certainly have form and you only need to look at the coalitions of 1918 and the 1930s so see what might happen. The big question is what happens to the government’s majority? Will enough Lib Dem MPs stay to ensure a workable majority or could the government fall?
Authored by Frank Browne, Conservative consultant for Curtin&Co and former council leader on Wokingham Borough Council.
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