Well the Tories all knew that this would happen, but even by our own very pessimistic forecasts the results of recent local council by-elections has been quite staggering. In one election this week the Conservatives lost a previously impervious council seat on Sandwell MBC in the West Midlands with a huge 45% swing to Labour. Of course local factors would doubtless be in play, and this local authority was hit hard by the cancellation of the Building Schools for the Future programme. But even taking this into account that result really does stand out.
This result follows a pretty predictable pattern of local government strength increasing for parties in opposition. Immediately prior to 1997 the Conservatives suffered a meltdown in their local councillor base. In one night in 1994 over 1,500 councillors were wiped out. Whole swathes of the UK became Tory-free zones. As John Major shuffled out of Downing Street on that gloriously sunny day in May 1997 the Conservatives were in an absolutely awful state.
Over the next 13 years there was not a single year where the blues didn't make significant new gains. Voters are far more likely to vote against the government. It is human nature to be motivated against something than to be for it. In the coming years it is entirely likely that previous Labour strongholds seized by the Conservatives and Lib Dems when Gordon Brown and Tony Blair occupied Number 10 will return to the fold.
The political landscape in local government is really set to change.
Antony Calvert
Conservative Consultant, Curtin&Co
This result follows a pretty predictable pattern of local government strength increasing for parties in opposition. Immediately prior to 1997 the Conservatives suffered a meltdown in their local councillor base. In one night in 1994 over 1,500 councillors were wiped out. Whole swathes of the UK became Tory-free zones. As John Major shuffled out of Downing Street on that gloriously sunny day in May 1997 the Conservatives were in an absolutely awful state.
Over the next 13 years there was not a single year where the blues didn't make significant new gains. Voters are far more likely to vote against the government. It is human nature to be motivated against something than to be for it. In the coming years it is entirely likely that previous Labour strongholds seized by the Conservatives and Lib Dems when Gordon Brown and Tony Blair occupied Number 10 will return to the fold.
The political landscape in local government is really set to change.
Antony Calvert
Conservative Consultant, Curtin&Co
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