A Consevative election review

So what’s the verdict on the first set of nationwide elections since the General election?

Most Conservatives would admit to being in a bit of a daze, we were anticipating a battering and the loss of up to one thousand seats we were defending. Quite incredibly we actually increased our councillor base, admittedly just by 81 at the time of writing but this was the last thing we anticipated.

The Liberal Democrats, as expected, fared badly but even worse than was imagined. Of the 1800 seats they were defending, they lost over 700; almost 40%. Whilst the Lib Dem High Command swung quickly into defensive mode about Nick Clegg’s position, there will be a large section of the voluntary party that will be very uneasy about the combined loss of so many councillors, key flagship councils and the AV vote.

So what about Labour? On paper they look to be the main beneficiaries but this is deceptive. Whilst they did well in some areas, they failed to make significant breakthroughs in much of the country, which explains why the Conservatives did so much better than expected. Ed Miliband had a golden opportunity to cement his slightly precarious leadership with a solid set of results and he failed to deliver. As a result he will continue to suffer from mutterings about his leadership.

So what are the implications of these results?

The high tide of conservative fortunes in the local government world, which I had predicted as having started to turn last year, is still in and looks to stay for a little longer. Cameron will feel obliged to try and help protect Clegg’s flank with a raft of legislative sweetners and other bolsters. The Conservative Parliamentary party which tolerates rather than enthuses over the coalition will get increasingly belligerent over what they see as being too many compromises. Whilst there is widespread relief over the AV result in much of the Conservative Party, this will only deliver a certain amount of political credit for Cameron at a time when it was running dangerously low.

The Lib Dems could go through one of their frenzied internecine periods with a leadership election. Huhne who was widely seen as lining himself for such a tilt may be damaged beneath the waterline by imminent reveleations from his former wife. That leaves Cable and Fallon as the only obvious alternatives. Both are left to the current leadership but more in tune with the party grassroots, but the key question is if there is a change of leadership what else is going to change. The Lib Dems have very limited room for manoeuvre as coalition partners, they are already getting significant manifesto commitments delivered. The only significant change left is a looser coalition arrangement or a complete splitting altogether. Both could be suicide for the parliamentary party but it does have form on this.

And finally, what of the Labour party? It will be pleased with the direction of travel its 800 plus seats gives but disappointed not to have done better. Scotland will be a major disappointment and, as I said earlier, speculation over its leader will continue.

Frank Browne, Conservative Consultant, Curtin&Co

May 5th predictions

We now have less than a week to go before the first major elections after the 2010 General Election. You can feel the tension in the air as politicians of all parties up and down the length and breadth of the country are anticipating the results.

YouGov published a poll on April 24^th for the Sun that showed the Liberals had slipped to a 20 year low of just 7%. Labour were on 43%, and the Tories 39%. Predictions based on national polls are pretty inaccurate because local factors in a local election can, and often do, make a difference.

One thing is clear from the doorstep, the Liberals are in uncharted waters. They have never campaigned as the Government before, and their usual position as the protest party has gone. In this election they have become the party a lot of people are protesting about. The Liberal vote in this scenario is vulnerable and the response from voters is clear they are leaving the sinking ship.

Nick Clegg is one of the most unpopular leaders of any party in recent history, and his personal journey from the anointed success of the General Election to almost pariah status today is unprecedented. The Liberals cannot escape what they have done in Government, and for the first time they will be held accountable at the ballot box and it doesn’t look good for them.

The Tories are playing things carefully, they know they will lose seats to Labour, and that the national picture will look very different on May 6^th, but they may feel emboldened by their relative survival in the face of a Liberal collapse. Watch out for expectation management of all the parties. Labour will talk of slow progress, the Liberals of losing to a national mood, and the Tories will talk of the high watermark they achieved last time, and this is purely a natural readjustment of that. Truth is the Liberals and Tories will lose badly and Labour will gain.

The bigger question that begs to be answered is at what point do the Tories pull the plug on the coalition and go for a General Election in the hope of an overall majority?

Labour meanwhile will begin its rehabilitation in the eyes of voters, gaining seats on a scale it hasn’t seen for over 15 years. Major cities, including key councils like Trafford, Reading, Newcastle and Sheffield will all swing back to Labour. Even in the leafy shires Labour will begin to regain previously lost ground. This is will improve Labour’s activist base and demoralise the opposition. It is fair to argue that at the moment Labour is the only opposition party to the Tories, and in many cases the real choice instead of the Liberals.

May 5^th will be a watershed for many reasons, not least for those poor foot-soldiers of each party who will win and lose. We forget sometimes how much personal effort and commitment councillors give in getting elected or trying to stay elected. May 5^th will shape the political narrative, we’ll just have wait and see what the voters actually serve up.

Dr Paul Harvey, Labour Consultant, Curtin&Co

Time for a Quickie Divorce ?

Last month I wrote how the AV referendum had the potential of sowing the seeds of destruction for the coalition government.

The latest turf war suggests the break up might be more imminent.

It is almost unprecedented that cabinet ministers criticise each other in public and the tone of the recent carping by Huhne and Cable suggest a deliberate fracturing could be about to take place.

It is increasingly difficult to see how the growing divisions can be smoothed over that is if the protagonists even want them to be.

So what is going on?

Huhne’s behaviour could be interpreted as a softening up exercise ahead of a leadership challenge to Clegg.

Remember this man would have won the Lib Dem leadership had it not been for delays caused by the Christmas post.

Not a member of the Orange Book clique that is more comfortable in the coalition, he is more in tune with the majority of the Lib Dem party membership and could well harness the significant unease that is likely to erupt after the inevitable bloody nose the party will receive on May 5th.

Meanwhile, stage left, Cable is almost daring Cameron to sack him. His manoeuvring is more difficult to interpret, if it is a thought out ploy but could be seen as a possible precursor to a splintering of the party or a jump to the Labour party.

If the referendum is lost, informed insiders believe Cable’s behaviour might be an attempt to negotiate another referendum with the Labour Party. Quite how realistic this is has to be questioned.

Behind these scenes of internecine manoeuvring, the mutterings are growing in the Conservative ranks. Talk of more compromises to prop up an embattled Clegg is met with an increasing belligerence. Cameron is busy using up his political capital and there will come a time when the predominantly right wing parliamentary party is going to put its foot down. Whilst there is no talk of a leadership challenge, Cameron will find his room for manoeuvre increasingly restricted.

Hang onto your seats for an interesting six months.

Frank Browne, Conservative Consultant, Curtin&Co

Budget Reaction

Housebuilders in particular can take encouragement from today's budget, with the press conference emphasis on a new 'drive for homes' finally giving rise to legislative change - relaxing rules around the conversion of commercial to residential property is an important step, and will free up an estimated 266,000 commercial units for housing.

Vince Cable's much vaunted 'land auctions' also make the cut in the budget, with the first set of pilot auctions of undeveloped land from local owners scheduled for the summer. How successful these pilot projects is yet to be seen, but the willingness of both developers and cash-strapped councils to take a punt on undeveloped sites will be a concern.

Other headlines of the budget carry the usual emphasis on the relationship between property ownership and scoial mobility. In a bid to get first-time buyers onto the ladder, those with 5% deposits will now be eligible for a 20% government loan on top of income-assessed mortgage entitlements.

How all of this will sit alongside the Loclaism agenda, particularly in relation to pre-permissioned plots being sold to developers by local authorities at auction, is highly questionable. The Bill's resilience during its passage through parlaiment over the next 12 months will be key.

Pickles was congratualted on the strength, scope and ambition of the Bill when it finally came; all of that will count for nothing if it continues to unravel over the next nine months.

Ally Kennedy
Liberal Democrat Consultant

The local government elections, be careful what you wish for…

Nominations have opened for the forthcoming local government elections on May 5th. In addition to the 279 councils and 8000 plus seats up, we have elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the ill considered referendum on AV.

The Conservatives will be defending some 5000 seats, the Lib Dems just over 1800 and Labour 1600. Privately the Conservatives are bracing themselves for losses of up to 1000 seats, the Lib Dems are probably vulnerable in over 500 seats with Labour set to be the main beneficiary from both.

Despite the slightly ridiculous issue being subjected to referendum, the result either way, combined with the likely local government elections are likely to have far reaching effects than should normally be expected.

If the referendum succeeds, quite possible given the current shambles of the NO campaign, coalition governments could become the norm rather than the exception.

If it falls, the result combined with the likely loss of seats and councils for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats at local government level will place a huge strain on the coalition government.

Whilst it is doubtful if it would cause the imminent collapse of the government, it will probably sow the seeds of an eventual split.

So where will the pressure come from?

The Liberal Democrats are most likely to crack first. The nature of the party makes it more vulnerable to the pressures council losses will exert, and I suspect we may see the left breaking off to form a more left leaning Liberal Democrat grouping or, completely jumping ship to join Labour who is assiduously courting them already, with the Orange bookers (the more solid right wing) remaining in the coalition. They certainly have form and you only need to look at the coalitions of 1918 and the 1930s so see what might happen. The big question is what happens to the government’s majority? Will enough Lib Dem MPs stay to ensure a workable majority or could the government fall?

Authored by Frank Browne, Conservative consultant for Curtin&Co and former council leader on Wokingham Borough Council.

Pre-budget planning pressure builds on Osborne

Eric Pickles' promises to cut the planning system 'down to size' this week make for interesting pre-budget reading. Whether the rhetoric here will be backed up by decisive action following the ongoing debate on Localism's capacity to impede or assit growth, is another matter.



The lowest house-building rates since 1923 are beginning to force the treasury's hand on this one.



Tomorrow's budget will lay out how the government intends to reverse the current 'inertia' gripping developmnent in the UK (as the DCLG Select Committee put it so aptly this week).

New Homes Bonus- A Conservative View

Critics of the Localism agenda have been saying for some time now that the new system is unworkable; after all, who’s going to vote for new developments in their back yard? Certainly not councils who fear a political back-lash in any up-coming election, that’s for sure!

But will they now with added financial incentives? The common theme of local rags up and down the country has centred on “cuts” after being spoon-fed by the Labour Party Press Office carpet-baggers. How will we possibly cope without all those diversity and climate change officers?

Anyway, the financial incentives of the New Homes Bonus will provide local councils with an ideal way to avoid some of the most devastating cuts. A few million quid in the council coffers should help save a few local libraries so their 3 or 4 customers can continue to enjoy their Mills and Boon and books on ornithology. Great!

George Saliagopoulos Curtin&Co Consultant

Cala Homes Challenge Failure: A Conservative Perspective

Labour's central planning has for a long time stifled diversity and local initative. It has for too long prevented local individuals from having a say in the future shape of their communities and denigrated the power of the local decision-making authorities, hence making them less accountable. This is bad for democracy.

So the news that housebuilder Cala Homes has just lost a legal battle against the Government's claim that its intention to abolish regional housing targets should be considered when deciding on planning decisions is brilliant news.

In short, it is a resounding victory for the Coalition Government's localism agenda and is proof that Labour's top-down planning system is tentatively close to dying its long-awaited death. Good riddance I say.


George Saliagopoulos

Conservative Consultant

Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election result

The results are in, and it's a fairly unsurprising outcome that all but the most excitable political commentators have been predicting for weeks:

LAB - 42.1
LD - 31.9
CON - 12.8
UKIP - 5.8

No real surprises for those who felt the Liberal Democrats were never seriously in the contest, but there will be some disquiet within the third-placed party ranks as to the 'gentle' campaign run by the Conservatives.

Reaction from the party leaders below:

ED MILIBAND - Labour leader
"This is the first step in a long journey for Labour. But more importantly, I hope the government will listen to what they've said about those key issues. I think the voters have sent a very clear message. They've said to the government: 'Think again on VAT, think again on the trebling of tuition fees, think again on the police cuts that are going to affect their communities"

NICK CLEGG - Lib Dem leader and deputy prime minister
"This was a very hard-fought contest but we were not able to gain this Labour seat on this occasion. I am proud of each and every one of the hundreds of activists and volunteers who have brought the fight to Labour's front door in a way that will have confounded our critics. It was always going to be a big ask to take this seat from Labour, given the circumstances. We are undertaking some enormously difficult decisions because Labour left Britain's economy in a mess"

DAVID CAMERON - Prime minister and Conservative leader
"I think we fought a good campaign. Our candidate, Kashif Ali, was a strong candidate, I was one of the first prime ministers for many many years to campaign personally in an English by-election. I enjoyed doing that, I'm proud of the campaign we fought. But of course we started in third place, we ended in third place, and that's often the way with by-elections"

Oldham and Saddleworth by-election- A Tory Perspective

Ring the bell, its by-election time! The Oldham by-election, in the wake of the dishonest Phil Woolas’ annulled victory, is fast looming. On January 13th the voters of the Oldham and Saddleworth constituency will be granted the opportunity to punish Labour for the dirty campaign in the run up to the 2010 General Election (a campaign in which Labour won by 103 votes).

It looks like time for the Liberal Democrats to get some sweet revenge, but most wouldn’t bet on it. I certainly won’t. The Liberal Democrats have lost well over half their national support since last May after having ostensibly signed up to the Coalition’s tuition fee rises and “nasty cuts”.

Labour’s bleating over the Coalition’s “savage cuts” of 3.3 % in an attempt to deal with the £155 billion yearly deficit seems to have penetrated the thick skulls of the witless British voters. Accordingly, Labour are sitting pretty with 41% opinion poll ratings (far far above the 9% who said they would vote Lib Dem if an election were held tomorrow). If the Lib Dem candidate Elwyn Watkins wins on Thursday I’ll eat my hat.