55% - the price of stable government

The past week has provided us with a taster of the kind of things we can expect from the dawn of “new politics” and a “renewed democracy”.

While many have been hailing our new government as a breakthrough in progressive politics, something decidedly undemocratic and self-serving has been bubbling away in the corridors of power of late and - perhaps most worryingly of all - nobody seems to mind too much.

The coalition’s proposals to raise the threshold at which parliament must be dissolved from 50% plus one of the Commons vote to 55% are unconstitutional, undemocratic, and in my opinion, unjustifiable.

“Fixing our broken politics” was not supposed to include “fixing” our constitution - so that it becomes the responsibility of parliament, not the coalition partners, to prop up a government. If the coalition partners can’t work together and lose the confidence of parliament then there is only one remaining option that can give an elected government the mandate to carry out its legislative programme – another general election.

To remove the right of over half of parliament to throw out a government through a vote of no confidence is a matter of convenience – not a position of principle. It is naked self-interest of the worst kind.

At a time when public support for proportional representation and a more responsive politics is at its peak, its seems strange that the very same public are happy to handover the keys to a Prime Minister for five years, come what may – and with no strings attached.

All the talk of “stable and strong government in the national interest” has left us sleep-walking into an era where credibility is becoming secondary to stability. We can only hope that the rebels within the coalition’s ranks can make the rest of their parties see beyond their own needs.

The Labour Leadership Race

Labour needs to grasp the opportunity it has been given to renew. The electorate did not wholly reject the party as it did the Tories in 1997, and the Liberal Democrats have now conceded any pretence to progressive politics by entering a coalition of the centre right.

Therefore, the Labour leadership election needs to invigorate a debate on the centre left about how the progressive agenda, in particular themed around social justice and localism can unlock the political stalemate and set out a new electable government of the centre left.

The ideas and policy will matter as much as the charisma of a leader who gets it. That is the vacuum of power and personality that has been left by the New Labour era. Neither Nick Clegg or David Cameron get it, and they appear to be fighting over yesterday's agenda, seeking to right the wrongs of New Labour rather than defining a new politics as they much talk about.

The real political debate is not some coalition of the mediocre or mutually agreeable, but a strident renewed progressive centre left reaffirmed in the values that were such an embodiment of the 1997 tide which need to be recast and reflect modern Britain today.

What do you think?

Elections - 2010 and beyond!

Curtin and Co asked three of our consultants - one Conservative, one Labour and, of course, one Lib Dem - to give us a view of the recent Election and following negotiations from where they sit.

Each of them have been closely involved in this year’s election on a ground level basis. One as Theresa May’s campaign manager, one as Labour’s Basingstoke campaign co ordinator and one as a Liberal Democrat campaign assistant.

Here's what they had to say................................

Conservative viewpoint

After the deals are done….

Oil and Water

As every school child knows Oil and Water do not mix, but the political equivalents - the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties - are doing their best to prove the theory wrong. Will this be a truly significant reshaping of the political landscape or a project too fundamentally flawed to succeed?

The not so ‘odd couple’

At the top there is a real hope and commitment; Clegg and Cameron come from surprisingly similar backgrounds and have almost an indistinguishable outlook on many issues.
They have shown a real commitment and determination to setting out a political agenda that starts to address some of the key issues that need urgent attention and a semi-coherent vision for the new Parliament.

There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader. - Alexandre Ledru-Rollin

The flaws start at the grass roots. The Conservative Party remains a fundamentally right-wing party. For all Cameron’s efforts to detoxify, rebrand and reposition the party, it remains more right-wing than the leadership and is deeply suspicious, as well as disappointed in Cameron. Clegg is also removed from his activists. He is more right-of-centre on many issues than the membership and, whilst lauded for delivering the opportunity to wield power for the first time for generations, he has not delivered the Holy Grail for the Lib Dems: Proportional representation.
As demonstrated by the time it has taken just to agree broad principles and personnel, coalitions are hard work. Whilst there is clear chemistry and commitment from the top there has to be a question about the belief in the project at the grass roots and activists level. Go too far ahead of your supporters and there’ll be hell to pay.

The invisible elections

Whilst the Nation’s eyes were focused on Westminster and Whitehall, significant events were unfolding in town halls up and down the land. The Blue tide that had benefited the Conservatives over the last decade - making them the largest party in local government - was turning. Labour actually did rather well in this set of elections, winning control of some 15 councils and gaining an extra 420 councillors. Whilst this doesn’t change the overall picture it marks the start of the swing against the Conservatives.

Frank Browne

Frank is the former leader of Wokingham BC and was also Theresa May’s campaign manager in this years election






Liberal Democrat viewpoint

So, three TV debates, four days of talks and one Prime Minister later, here we are; facing the prospect of a fixed-term parliament Con-Lib coalition for the next five years (or at least for the next six months). Voting reform, and influence over tax, education and deficit reduction policies was the price the Tories would have to pay for power, and eventually they coughed up (sort of).

How substantive Conservative commitments to Liberal reforms are remains to be seen. Some (including this particular Liberal Democrat) are less than convinced the coalition will deliver what Clegg has optimistically forecast it to.

Doubts over Clegg’s ability to get his party on side have, for now, been suppressed. Concern did not translate into a close vote from the Liberal Democrat Federal Executive, who returned a vote of ‘three quarters in favour’ of a coalition with Cameron’s Conservatives.

Although the party hierarchy have blessed this unlikely union it seems hard to believe that this attitude prevails amongst the majority of the party membership; particularly its campaigners and activists. For many Liberal Democrats the idea of working with a party committed to inheritance tax cuts for the top income bracket, renewal of trident, an immigration cap, and no discernable commitment to climate change beyond the cursory references to ‘Green enterprise’ and ‘sustainable economy’ was hard to stomach. To some it still is.

Of course there is agreement on some areas of policy (moving towards a £10,000 threshold for income tax and a pupil premium, for example) and it’s certainly in the country’s best interests for the coalition to get on with the business of government as best it can. More intriguing though is how the coalition will leave the parties if/when we all go back to the polls towards the end of the year. Labour, for now, remain something of an unknown quantity without a leader in place. A Milliband or Balls approach to the situation will provide another input to what has been a fascinating contest so far, and one that will continue unofficially in the months ahead.

Sick to death of sound-bites, smokescreen politics and gameshow TV debates we may be; but round two of the election tussle is upon us, and is likely to prove far more decisive than its predecessor.

Ally Kennedy

Ally has recently joined Curtin&Co and previously worked on policy and research for the Liberal Democrats at their Headquarters in Westminster and at constituency level.




Labour viewpoint

The 2010 election is actually a tale of two polls. The Parliamentary election is a fascinating story of the voters choosing to elect no-one to an overall majority. Labour lost 90 seats, a terrible defeat in any estimation, but go back a year and look at the 20 point Tory lead in the opinion polls. On May 6th 2010 the Tories could only poll 36% to Labour’s 29%. The truth is that the Tories and Labour both lost the 2010 election.

Labour won 258 seats, the predicted meltdown didn’t happen, Labour held seats like Bolton North West, Hampstead and numerous seats in Yorkshire, the Midlands and East Midlands that should have been won by the Tories. In 1997 the Tories were wiped out, down to 195 seats, Labour are not in that position. Yes, Labour lost and badly in the South East, but the party position is stronger than anyone expected and they are just 40 odd seats short of the Tories.

What is expected now following the formation of the Con Dem coalition is a move by both those parties to fix the system in their favour. They will now change the boundaries away from urban seats and increase the size of constituencies whilst reducing the number of MPs, depriving Labour of many seats and stacking the battlegrounds in the Tories favour. They will change the rules on votes of confidence so no longer will it be 50% plus one, but an unassailable 55% of the Commons. The Labour Party may be within striking distance of the Tories on paper, but the other two parties know this so they will now bend the system to keep Labour out.

The other big story of the election is the picture in Local Government. Labour made huge gains at both the Tories and Liberals expense. Nearly 400 council seats gained and 15 councils. Labour now controls Liverpool and Leeds again. The story in London is the most intriguing. Labour held 49% of the vote and gained 9 Council’s including Enfield, Waltham Forest, Hounslow and Ealing. These local elections results are a massive boost to the Labour Party especially as it now moves to choose a new national leader.

As with the usual pattern of Parliamentary and Local Government elections the party in power nationally loses out locally. This time saw the Liberals and Tories losing roughly 150 seats each, and losing the control of flagship councils paints a different picture to that of the national scene. Over the coming years and for as long as the Tories and Liberals remain in power the swing to Labour locally will gather momentum.

The story of election night and since for the progressive centre left was one of shock and dismay. The ‘liberal’ Liberal Democrats are in the ascendency and have done a deal with the Tories that many of the ‘social’ Liberal Democrats will find increasingly difficult to stomach. Watch this space; this won’t last 5 years....

Dr Paul Harvey

Paul is the former leader of Basingstoke and Deane County Council and a current Labour councillor who also managed the Labour Basinstoke Local and National Election 2010 campaign.

RIBA has today warned that the new government should encourage "positive localism" to avoid NIMBYism.

The problem is that 99.9% of the population is NIMBY: Everyone wants green energy but no-one wants a wind turbine in their back garden; those who oppose wind energy want nuclear power stations..but not in their back garden; everyone thinks that affordable homes should be built so that young people can buy...but nobody wants a new estate anywhere near them.

The planning system already gives ultimate authority to councillors and politicians who, whilst having their constituents' best interests in mind, are not necessarily experts. At least they are advised by officers, though. Providing greater opportunity to question and oppose development is likely to lead to one result: An increase in NIMBY victories and a lack of development.

Ash Crisis was a Communications Failure

The recent debacle over air travel is an example of how the lack of preparation and training leads to a ridiculous crisis.

This is not a problem of communications: the media – new and old – are more than happy to transmit scare stories.

The problem is a break-down in internal communications between the technical experts, who were obviously totally unprepared for the volcano crisis. Their only answer was to pull the plug and cause untold misery for millions.

We had the same thing with Swine Flu and Bird Flu – where are all the dead people? After all the former was a ‘Level Six Pandemic (the highest) ’.

Good crisis management needs close working between technical experts – who must get their house in order – and the communications professional who are at the front line delivering the message.

More to This Election Than Just Voting

Everyone; the pundits, voters and politicians have been looking for the General Election game changer. For months the forgone conclusion of a Conservative victory has ebbed away. Cameron hasn’t sealed the deal with the British people, he has failed to connect and at the same time Labour mired in its own internal machinations has failed to land a knock out blow. Meanwhile creeping up the outside the Liberal Democrats have been handed a gift.
Whether you believe it a master stroke of Peter Mandelson’s tactical genius or of sheer political nerve, the agreement of Labour and more importantly the Tories to the inclusion of Nick Clegg in the Leadership debates could be the game changer of this election.
Consider the reality of the opinion polls. Since the first debate the Liberal Democrat surge has hit the Tories hard. Labour has also lost a few percentage points, but the overwhelming truth of the Liberal Democrat surge, if sustained, is that it kills off the Tories chances of a majority.
Can the Conservatives fight a war on two fronts? Can they hit the Labour Party in the midlands marginal’s and take the fight to the Liberal Democrats in the South and South West? Probably not, because even the Tories with all Ashcroft’s millions cannot cover that much ground.
The Tories in the last week have turned their fire on the Liberal Democrats, they are going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at Nick Clegg.
The Tories need plus 40% to secure a working majority, Labour need 33% to deprive the Tories of a majority if the Tories continue to poll less than 39%. Anything less than 39% for the Tories will realistically mean a hung parliament. So if you believe the current polling averages of Labour on 27%, Liberal Democrats on 29% and the Tories on 33% then it could mean Labour are the largest party in a hung parliament.
In terms of the local government picture this three way battle; if the Liberal Democrat poll strength is translated into votes in the ballot box this will alter the political landscape of the UK. The big question is whether the Liberal Democrats can indeed convert the support they appear to have in the polls in to real votes in ballot boxes.
When you look at a map of council control in the UK you can see the red urban heartlands and blue rural split. But, the picture over the last few local elections has become far more complicated. Labour has been hit hard by Liberal Democrat gains in the North. Labour no longer control Leeds, Bradford, Newscastle, Sheffield, Hull, Milton Keynes, or Liverpool. Major northern cities now controlled by the Liberal Democrats. If we then consider the strength of the Liberal Democrats, despite losing Cornwall and Devon County Council’s last year, in the South West the local government picture is very complicated.
This year there are three major battlegrounds – all London Borough’s are up for election. 36 Metropolitan Boroughs and 20 Unitary Councils are up for election by thirds.
Of the London Boroughs the big question is how high the Tory tide will wash ashore. It is likely that the Tories will enhance their grip on control of Redbridge, Merton, Harrow and Enfield. Labour lost badly in the last elections and their bastions of Greenwich, Barking & Dagenham, Hackney, Newham and Lambeth are relatively impregnable. Ones to watch would be Hounslow where the Tories could strengthen joint control with the Liberal Democrats, or Haringey where Labour has a 5 seat majority and the Liberal Democrats could take control. The Liberal Democrats on the other hand are defending a two seat majority in Kingston upon Thames and the Tories will be expecting to take control. In Islington things couldn’t be more balanced as the Liberal Democrats have 24 seats, Labour 23 and the Greens 1 seat.
In the big Metropolitan Borough’s watch out for shocks in Bolton, Kirklees, Calderdale and Wolverhampton where the Tories will be expecting to take full control. Labour is stronger in Metropolitan Councils as it defends it’s heartlands in Rotherham, Barnsley, Manchester, Wigan, and Sunderland. The Liberal Democrats are strong in Stockport, Sheffield and Liverpool. Of significance for the General Election is the problem for the Tories that Sheffield, Newcastle, Gateshead, Knowsley, and Liverpool are all Tory free councils. Manchester has just one Tory on the Council.
The Unitary Council’s are really fascinating to watch. Blackburn is a four way split, look for the Tories to make gains here. Bristol could swing heavily to the Liberal Democrats. Reading will likely be lost by Labour, and so too could Stoke, Stockton, Redcar and Cleveland, North Lincolnshire, Luton, and Leicester all be lost. It is almost certain that Labour will lose seats and control of yet more councils.
The fundamental issue will be whether Labour’s vote holds up and actually comes out to vote. There is little sign of it truly shifting to the Tories, but a great number are undecided and are thinking twice about the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will be highly motivated to go out and vote, but can the Tories stack up votes outside of their heartlands is a big question. The Liberal Democrats are the spoilers. If their poll results are translated into votes then the political landscape will be very different come May 7th. The focus for the Liberal Democrats will be to hurt the Tories in the South West and in Wessex, whereas they will hurt Labour in the northern cities. If the Liberal Democrat surge collapses then it might be better for Labour in Local Government terms, but it will likely result in a Tory Government?
This is definitely one of the most interesting elections in a generation.

Tories committ to nuclear and renewable energy

The Conservatives have unveiled their Green Paper on energy, called 'Rebuilding Security, Conservative Energy Policy For an Uncertain World'.

As with all major political announcements Curtin&Co has undertaken to produce a full analysis of this for our clients, a version of which is on our website. We have noted several common themes of Conservative policy coming out of this paper, which will form the manifesto for the Tories at the next general election.

The 'localism' theme is prominent, but only when referring to renewable energy. On-shore windfarms will be supported by a new Conservative government and local authorities will be encouraged to embrace this technology by retaining the business rates for each turbine developed for six years. Wind energy providers will also be obliged to provide subsidised energy for those living close to a wind farm, though this doesn't appear in much detail (probably because preparing such a subsidy is pretty much impossible at the moment).

But the localism theme stalls somewhat when big infrastructure issues are concerned. The Infrastructure Planning Commission, of who's deputy chairman was the guest speaker at our December Christmas event in London, will be predictably abolished. That may be bad news for the graphic designers and webmsters preparing the IPC's livery and corporate image, but the expertise of the IPC will be retained. It appears that far from trusting local authorities to make their own decisions on clean coal/carbon capture power plants and nuclear facilities these major decisions will still be made centrally, albeit not by an unelected quango but by the Planning Inspectorate.

Other highlights, such as creating a Green Investment Bank, are fairly apolitical in their nature. The Chancellor announced such a policy in yesterday's budget, so we can be assured that whoever wins the election will focus on this, though doubtless the detail will be different between the major parties.

I suppose the big talking point about this paper is how determined the Tories are about nuclear power. Given that there is an election in the offing and the form of energy generation is almost universally despised amongst green pressure groups it is nice to see such a commitment. Whether this outbreak of decisiveness will cost the party any seats and, perhaps, even rob them of an overall majority is anyones guess.

We've Got The Beef, Now What's The Recipe

Well here it is. The Conservative Green Paper, Open Source Planning, has been published. With the party's opinion poll lead narrowing we may yet see the recycling bin bulging with this on May 7th, but we must assume that this is unlikely. This Green Paper will be the basis of planning policy for the next few years.

Much of the document we already knbow. Previous papers have identified the need to do away with regional planning targets, development agencies, inspectors and the like. This paper confirms this. The days of reaching for the acronym guide to figure out PPS3, or RSS, or LDF will seemingly end.

Well until the next guide is published!

We all know that what is good in opposition, however, rarely makes it good in government. Some headlining measures include:

- Incentives for local authorities to set their own affordable housing target. The carrot will be a 125% retention of the council tax for each affordable unit built for six years

- Extension of delegated 'brownfield' land to include areas previously used for agricultural purposes

- Limited planning appeals against local development to just two grounds; that the correct procedure was not followed and that the decision was in direct contravention of the relevant local plan.

The localism agenda, which is underpinning pretty much every element of Conservative thinking right now, will bring in fairly unreasonable demands for whole communities to be involved in planning applications. Many people in such communities simply will not do this. The only interested party when making comment on a planning application is, generally, those opposing a development.

The next government, if it is Conservative, will undoubtedly refine this paper. Green Papers rarely duplicate themselved into White Papers. One bright shining hope is that the next intake of Tory MPs will undoubtedly include several current and former councillors.

Expect a lot of time spent on the committee stage of any future Planning bill!

We are all awaiting the Conservative's planning Green Paper with great interest. According to a leak in last week's Planning magazine we can expect "a Conservative government to introduce an open source planning system in which communities produce their own policies in response to a national framework."

Without wishing to be too cynical, this seems awfully similar to the system we have at the moment, with a national policy dictating regional policy down to local council level.

Both also seem very similar to the system of Structured Plans and Local Plans abolished by Labour to make way for RSSs and Local Development Frameworks.

Tinkering with the details of the planning system does not seem to change the fundamentals. So why have change - and I am talking about both Labour and Conservatives - for the sake of change?

As so many of our clients in the development sector say: "Give us consistency so that we can get on with the job. Even a bad system is better than a constantly changing one."

As Gaius Petronius put it 2,000 years ago: "I was to learn later in life that we tend to meet any new situation by re-organising; and a wonderful method it can be for creating the illusion of progress while producing confusion, inefficiency and demoralisation."

Plus ca change.

Tom Curtin

Tory Green Paper Almost Ready!

Well I do have to declare a little bit of an interest. I am a Tory PPC at the next general election and, as such, have a little bit of blue tint in my political goggles at the moment. The Conservatives are about to publish their long awaited Planning Green Paper. The previous two relevant papers made some interesting suggestions about how a future Tory administration could put into effect that, but this Green Paper will hopefully provide the meat on the bones.

There is a delay in the publication of this document, though. I have been in politics for some time and I don't think the industry should worry about the delay. The Conservatives are likely preparing a sophisticated 'grid' to put out new policy initiatives in the run up to the election.

But just what are 'Community Land Trusts' and 'Local Housing Trusts'? What will the new relationship be between developers and local government? How will local authorities react to a Council Tax incentive to build more homes?

All of these questions need some firm answers. Let's hope we don't have too long to wait!

Antony Calvert