Lost in Interpretation

In yesterday’s Telegraph, John Rhodes suggests that the Coalition’s planning agenda is supposed to promote more development and not give communities the power to block new homes, infrastructure or employment sites. It’s no secret that the economy needs more homes to be built so that sounds like a good thing. The problem is that it is not just a matter of how the Localism Bill and NPPF were intended to work; it is also a matter of how they are interpreted locally.

In many Conservative-controlled rural councils, even before the Coalition was in power, there was a view that all talk of development, RSS numbers and planning applications should stop until they were given the ultimate authority to decide by the Localism Bill. In some areas (particularly cities and new towns), the decision was to continue to promote more house-building and development; but in many it was assumed that Localism meant no more housing could be “forced” on their local communities.

Whilst the limitations of this view are now visibly settling and councils do appear to be taking more of a pragmatic approach, the rhetoric of Localism – local decisions made by local people; neighbourhood planning; local choice in development – has taken hold and councillors and residents’ groups are already using it to support their arguments.

If the Government really wants to increase the amount of development across the country and it wants local people to support it then it is first going to have to find a way of communicating the genuine need and tangible benefits which it brings; in the rural areas and the south-east as well as the cities.

Catherine Worboys, Managing Director, Curtin&Co

Government "all in" on housing

"George Osborne’s foray into the planning row concerning the draft NPPF now engulfing the coalition government will only serve to heighten tensions and provoke angry responses. But why is he wading in?

The economic meltdown now facing the US and Europe is causing the government to react, and the NPPF is a part of that. It is certainly a Treasury driven document.

The economic realities of a possible double dip recession, the reported growth in youth unemployment and the reported slow down in the construction industry have all led to calls from leading economists for the government to change tack. The Manager of PIMCO, one of the largest investment funds, Bill Gross, has warned George Osborne that his austerity measures risk pushing the UK into recession. In an interview with The Times, Gross called on Osborne to rethink the strategy, arguing UK economic conditions had proved it was not working. “'The UK economy in the UK is worse off than it was when the plan was developed”.

So the drive for growth and the presumption in favour of development enshrined within the draft NPPF becomes ever more critical and ever more needed in the eyes of government. Of course politically George Osborne cannot be seen to be changing tack, but as Harold Macmillan said, “events dear boy, events”, have a habit of knocking politicians off course.

There is real fear that the economy is about to take a nose dive, there are red lights all over the economic data and with the US and European Banks taking money out of the European Banking system the bad news just keeps on coming.

Now take the fact the construction industry and housing has been such a driver for economic growth in the UK and the Treasury’s need for the NPPF to open the door to greater house building, and to unlock the door to development over the protests of communities becomes the central driver for policy making.

The row over the NPPF has been heated between the CPRE, National Trust and the Tory led government. It is surreal to see Tory ministers in stand up rows with those who they courted the support of for years, but now they see the economic reality staring them in the face the choices could not be starker.

The row over the NPPF prompted 23 former Royal Town Planning Institute presidents to call for "reasoned debate and clear thinking" in a letter to the Telegraph last week.

So when Osborne weighs into the debate on the NPPF and planning reforms saying they are 'key to our economic recovery', and writing that "no one should underestimate our determination to win this battle". The stakes keep on being raised. The government is at an important crossroads and Localism looks like it may be mortally wounded by the harsh economic reality of austerity and the fact the Treasury has no plan B."

Paul Harvey

Paul is a Curtin&Co Consultant and former Leader of Basinstoke & Deane Borough Council. He is also a current councillor in Basingstoke's Norden ward, and Leader of the Basingstoke Labour Group

Cooperativism and Mutualism

Localism is the word of the moment. Column inches have been devoted to interpreting it, claiming to understand it, and predicting what it will mean. It looks likely that by November the Localism Bill, which is one of the largest and most far reaching pieces of legislation in recent years, will become Law, and then…..well, the floodgates will open. Local Councils will rush to pick up the powers and run with new and quite different interpretations of what it will mean.

The simple point to always hold in your mind is that the Government does not have a grand design, and that the purpose of Localism is to create such a patchwork quilt of interpretation.

I think it is fair to say Labour has struggled to find a meaningful response to the Localism Bill and more so the full Localism agenda. The Parliamentary Labour Party has rightly sniped away at some of the more ludicrous elements of the Bill which centralises power within the DCLG when the Bill professes to be about de-centralisation. However, Labour needs a coherent answer to this fundamental theme of the coalition Government.

Localism’s Achilles heel is that it is meaningless. What the Bill unleashes is a series of changes in housing policy and planning policy which will radically alter the world around us. But the meaning of Localism is lost in these far deeper and more disturbing changes.

The Bill will have huge impacts on social housing, it will redraw the scope of housing benefit and the delivery of affordable housing and it will lead to a tragedy in housing in general. If you remember ‘Cathy come home’ I think you can safely say that the impact of the changes to affordable housing will be that catastrophic. In essence the Tories have signalled the death of social housing.

Labour needs a repost to this and the answer for the party is in-fact not coming from the top but from the Labour controlled authorities in London and major metropolitan councils.

The unwritten story of the general election in 2010 was the huge success that Labour had in London in the local elections held on the same day. Winning control of 9 Councils it was a good night for the Labour Party in London.

These new Labour Councils have a had a year to begin to address the job of running a Council in the era of austerity and facing the huge cuts imposed by Central Government on Local Government.

Lambeth is setting the standard by championing the idea of a Cooperative Council. The idea of mutualism and cooperativism runs deep in the Labour Party, and these themes have been asserted in a lot of discussion about ‘Blue Labour’. The difference between the theorising of ‘Blue Labour’ and the reality of Labour politics in action is that Lambeth is actually delivering a model of a Co-operative Council.

The Co-operative Council draws inspiration from the values of fairness, accountability and responsibility. A Co-operative Council is about finding new ways in which people can participate in the decisions that affect their lives. The Co-operative Council is also not just about changing the council, it is about building more co-operative communities and realising that, for too long, councils have stood in the way rather than supported this development. A Co-operative Council seeks to do things with its community rather than do things to the community.

“This new approach to public service delivery aims to reshape the settlement between citizens and the state by handing more power to local people so that a real partnership of equals can emerge. I believe the huge level of interest in our ideas both locally and nationally is driven by a genuine desire to find new and better ways to deliver public services in the 21st century. Although we publish this report at a time of unprecedented Government cuts in funding for local services, ours is not a cuts-driven agenda. I believe that if we do not make this change then the future of public services will be much more uncertain.”

Cllr Steve Reed, Leader of Lambeth Council

Labour has a far more radical and far more meaningful repost to the Tory idea of Localism. The interesting point for local authorities up and down the rest of the country is that they will need to better understand what they are about, what they are there for. Localism will unwittingly create an accountability that will painfully expose those councils that suffer from weak leadership.

The planning process is then a part of this transformation and as Labour takes control of more authorities over the next few years of local elections, the change in the way Localism is actually implemented will hold greater meaning. The idea of a Co-operative Council is quite exciting because Localism will let this Labour idea grow and mature.

The national planning framework will set out the new principles of planning; but let’s not forget not a lot will actually change, LDF’s remain and so too the national targets for housing.

Lambeth, like other local authorities looking to deliver a Cooperative Council model, offer a solid direction of travel that grasps the opportunity Localism presents, but puts a Labour perspective on it.

The Treasury know that in most Tory authorities the idea of development and planning is dominated by a NIMBY agenda, and in a complete contradiction to the Localism Bill their proposals, now adopted by the DCLG and out for consultation, will allow developers to purchase employment land, change its use to residential without the need for planning permission and then submit an application in which the change of use is no longer a material reason for rejection. This will likely create a significant amount of windfall development that falls outside of local plans and therefore the Tory Councils can claim to have stuck to their local housing targets, and the Treasury can claim to be driving growth through greater house building. The irony of Localism will not see local people in greater control of development in their neighbourhoods; that will not be a reality of Localism.

So within that vacuum and sense of disappointment that will grow under the Localism Act the Labour Party can and should fill it with a better and far more meaningful answer based on Cooperativism and mutualism. The next few years will be some of the most interesting and uncertain as this whole new political landscape becomes a reality in practice.

Dr Paul Harvey, Curtin&Co, Labour Consultant

A Consevative election review

So what’s the verdict on the first set of nationwide elections since the General election?

Most Conservatives would admit to being in a bit of a daze, we were anticipating a battering and the loss of up to one thousand seats we were defending. Quite incredibly we actually increased our councillor base, admittedly just by 81 at the time of writing but this was the last thing we anticipated.

The Liberal Democrats, as expected, fared badly but even worse than was imagined. Of the 1800 seats they were defending, they lost over 700; almost 40%. Whilst the Lib Dem High Command swung quickly into defensive mode about Nick Clegg’s position, there will be a large section of the voluntary party that will be very uneasy about the combined loss of so many councillors, key flagship councils and the AV vote.

So what about Labour? On paper they look to be the main beneficiaries but this is deceptive. Whilst they did well in some areas, they failed to make significant breakthroughs in much of the country, which explains why the Conservatives did so much better than expected. Ed Miliband had a golden opportunity to cement his slightly precarious leadership with a solid set of results and he failed to deliver. As a result he will continue to suffer from mutterings about his leadership.

So what are the implications of these results?

The high tide of conservative fortunes in the local government world, which I had predicted as having started to turn last year, is still in and looks to stay for a little longer. Cameron will feel obliged to try and help protect Clegg’s flank with a raft of legislative sweetners and other bolsters. The Conservative Parliamentary party which tolerates rather than enthuses over the coalition will get increasingly belligerent over what they see as being too many compromises. Whilst there is widespread relief over the AV result in much of the Conservative Party, this will only deliver a certain amount of political credit for Cameron at a time when it was running dangerously low.

The Lib Dems could go through one of their frenzied internecine periods with a leadership election. Huhne who was widely seen as lining himself for such a tilt may be damaged beneath the waterline by imminent reveleations from his former wife. That leaves Cable and Fallon as the only obvious alternatives. Both are left to the current leadership but more in tune with the party grassroots, but the key question is if there is a change of leadership what else is going to change. The Lib Dems have very limited room for manoeuvre as coalition partners, they are already getting significant manifesto commitments delivered. The only significant change left is a looser coalition arrangement or a complete splitting altogether. Both could be suicide for the parliamentary party but it does have form on this.

And finally, what of the Labour party? It will be pleased with the direction of travel its 800 plus seats gives but disappointed not to have done better. Scotland will be a major disappointment and, as I said earlier, speculation over its leader will continue.

Frank Browne, Conservative Consultant, Curtin&Co

May 5th predictions

We now have less than a week to go before the first major elections after the 2010 General Election. You can feel the tension in the air as politicians of all parties up and down the length and breadth of the country are anticipating the results.

YouGov published a poll on April 24^th for the Sun that showed the Liberals had slipped to a 20 year low of just 7%. Labour were on 43%, and the Tories 39%. Predictions based on national polls are pretty inaccurate because local factors in a local election can, and often do, make a difference.

One thing is clear from the doorstep, the Liberals are in uncharted waters. They have never campaigned as the Government before, and their usual position as the protest party has gone. In this election they have become the party a lot of people are protesting about. The Liberal vote in this scenario is vulnerable and the response from voters is clear they are leaving the sinking ship.

Nick Clegg is one of the most unpopular leaders of any party in recent history, and his personal journey from the anointed success of the General Election to almost pariah status today is unprecedented. The Liberals cannot escape what they have done in Government, and for the first time they will be held accountable at the ballot box and it doesn’t look good for them.

The Tories are playing things carefully, they know they will lose seats to Labour, and that the national picture will look very different on May 6^th, but they may feel emboldened by their relative survival in the face of a Liberal collapse. Watch out for expectation management of all the parties. Labour will talk of slow progress, the Liberals of losing to a national mood, and the Tories will talk of the high watermark they achieved last time, and this is purely a natural readjustment of that. Truth is the Liberals and Tories will lose badly and Labour will gain.

The bigger question that begs to be answered is at what point do the Tories pull the plug on the coalition and go for a General Election in the hope of an overall majority?

Labour meanwhile will begin its rehabilitation in the eyes of voters, gaining seats on a scale it hasn’t seen for over 15 years. Major cities, including key councils like Trafford, Reading, Newcastle and Sheffield will all swing back to Labour. Even in the leafy shires Labour will begin to regain previously lost ground. This is will improve Labour’s activist base and demoralise the opposition. It is fair to argue that at the moment Labour is the only opposition party to the Tories, and in many cases the real choice instead of the Liberals.

May 5^th will be a watershed for many reasons, not least for those poor foot-soldiers of each party who will win and lose. We forget sometimes how much personal effort and commitment councillors give in getting elected or trying to stay elected. May 5^th will shape the political narrative, we’ll just have wait and see what the voters actually serve up.

Dr Paul Harvey, Labour Consultant, Curtin&Co

Time for a Quickie Divorce ?

Last month I wrote how the AV referendum had the potential of sowing the seeds of destruction for the coalition government.

The latest turf war suggests the break up might be more imminent.

It is almost unprecedented that cabinet ministers criticise each other in public and the tone of the recent carping by Huhne and Cable suggest a deliberate fracturing could be about to take place.

It is increasingly difficult to see how the growing divisions can be smoothed over that is if the protagonists even want them to be.

So what is going on?

Huhne’s behaviour could be interpreted as a softening up exercise ahead of a leadership challenge to Clegg.

Remember this man would have won the Lib Dem leadership had it not been for delays caused by the Christmas post.

Not a member of the Orange Book clique that is more comfortable in the coalition, he is more in tune with the majority of the Lib Dem party membership and could well harness the significant unease that is likely to erupt after the inevitable bloody nose the party will receive on May 5th.

Meanwhile, stage left, Cable is almost daring Cameron to sack him. His manoeuvring is more difficult to interpret, if it is a thought out ploy but could be seen as a possible precursor to a splintering of the party or a jump to the Labour party.

If the referendum is lost, informed insiders believe Cable’s behaviour might be an attempt to negotiate another referendum with the Labour Party. Quite how realistic this is has to be questioned.

Behind these scenes of internecine manoeuvring, the mutterings are growing in the Conservative ranks. Talk of more compromises to prop up an embattled Clegg is met with an increasing belligerence. Cameron is busy using up his political capital and there will come a time when the predominantly right wing parliamentary party is going to put its foot down. Whilst there is no talk of a leadership challenge, Cameron will find his room for manoeuvre increasingly restricted.

Hang onto your seats for an interesting six months.

Frank Browne, Conservative Consultant, Curtin&Co

Budget Reaction

Housebuilders in particular can take encouragement from today's budget, with the press conference emphasis on a new 'drive for homes' finally giving rise to legislative change - relaxing rules around the conversion of commercial to residential property is an important step, and will free up an estimated 266,000 commercial units for housing.

Vince Cable's much vaunted 'land auctions' also make the cut in the budget, with the first set of pilot auctions of undeveloped land from local owners scheduled for the summer. How successful these pilot projects is yet to be seen, but the willingness of both developers and cash-strapped councils to take a punt on undeveloped sites will be a concern.

Other headlines of the budget carry the usual emphasis on the relationship between property ownership and scoial mobility. In a bid to get first-time buyers onto the ladder, those with 5% deposits will now be eligible for a 20% government loan on top of income-assessed mortgage entitlements.

How all of this will sit alongside the Loclaism agenda, particularly in relation to pre-permissioned plots being sold to developers by local authorities at auction, is highly questionable. The Bill's resilience during its passage through parlaiment over the next 12 months will be key.

Pickles was congratualted on the strength, scope and ambition of the Bill when it finally came; all of that will count for nothing if it continues to unravel over the next nine months.

Ally Kennedy
Liberal Democrat Consultant

The local government elections, be careful what you wish for…

Nominations have opened for the forthcoming local government elections on May 5th. In addition to the 279 councils and 8000 plus seats up, we have elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the ill considered referendum on AV.

The Conservatives will be defending some 5000 seats, the Lib Dems just over 1800 and Labour 1600. Privately the Conservatives are bracing themselves for losses of up to 1000 seats, the Lib Dems are probably vulnerable in over 500 seats with Labour set to be the main beneficiary from both.

Despite the slightly ridiculous issue being subjected to referendum, the result either way, combined with the likely local government elections are likely to have far reaching effects than should normally be expected.

If the referendum succeeds, quite possible given the current shambles of the NO campaign, coalition governments could become the norm rather than the exception.

If it falls, the result combined with the likely loss of seats and councils for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats at local government level will place a huge strain on the coalition government.

Whilst it is doubtful if it would cause the imminent collapse of the government, it will probably sow the seeds of an eventual split.

So where will the pressure come from?

The Liberal Democrats are most likely to crack first. The nature of the party makes it more vulnerable to the pressures council losses will exert, and I suspect we may see the left breaking off to form a more left leaning Liberal Democrat grouping or, completely jumping ship to join Labour who is assiduously courting them already, with the Orange bookers (the more solid right wing) remaining in the coalition. They certainly have form and you only need to look at the coalitions of 1918 and the 1930s so see what might happen. The big question is what happens to the government’s majority? Will enough Lib Dem MPs stay to ensure a workable majority or could the government fall?

Authored by Frank Browne, Conservative consultant for Curtin&Co and former council leader on Wokingham Borough Council.

Pre-budget planning pressure builds on Osborne

Eric Pickles' promises to cut the planning system 'down to size' this week make for interesting pre-budget reading. Whether the rhetoric here will be backed up by decisive action following the ongoing debate on Localism's capacity to impede or assit growth, is another matter.



The lowest house-building rates since 1923 are beginning to force the treasury's hand on this one.



Tomorrow's budget will lay out how the government intends to reverse the current 'inertia' gripping developmnent in the UK (as the DCLG Select Committee put it so aptly this week).

New Homes Bonus- A Conservative View

Critics of the Localism agenda have been saying for some time now that the new system is unworkable; after all, who’s going to vote for new developments in their back yard? Certainly not councils who fear a political back-lash in any up-coming election, that’s for sure!

But will they now with added financial incentives? The common theme of local rags up and down the country has centred on “cuts” after being spoon-fed by the Labour Party Press Office carpet-baggers. How will we possibly cope without all those diversity and climate change officers?

Anyway, the financial incentives of the New Homes Bonus will provide local councils with an ideal way to avoid some of the most devastating cuts. A few million quid in the council coffers should help save a few local libraries so their 3 or 4 customers can continue to enjoy their Mills and Boon and books on ornithology. Great!

George Saliagopoulos Curtin&Co Consultant